Amid growing fears of a peace deal collapse in Juba
following the house arrest of First Vice President Dr. Riek Machar, regional leaders
have appointed Raila as an envoy, while the African Union deploys its ‘Panel of
the Wise’ to de-escalate tensions and prevent a return to civil war.
The SPLM-IO, a key armed partner in the peace process,
declared on Thursday that the peace agreement had collapsed, drawing regional
and international attention, after its leader, Dr. Machar; his wife, Angelina
Teny; and his team were arrested on March 26, 2025, by security forces under
President Kiir’s directive.
Thursday afternoon, just hours before Raila Odinga was
appointed as envoy to South Sudan, Kenyan President William Samoei Ruto relayed
regional concerns to President Salva Kiir in a phone call and informed him of
plans to dispatch an envoy to Juba.
“Had a phone call with Pres. Salva Kiir on the situation
leading to the house arrest and detention of 1st Vice Pres. Riak Machar in South
Sudan. After consultations with President Museveni and PM Abiy, I'm sending a
special envoy to South Sudan to engage, try to de-escalate, and brief us back,”
Ruto announced on X account.
The exact arrival date of the Panel of the Wise in Juba
remains unclear, but Raila is expected to arrive on Friday, March 28, 2025.
The ongoing tension, which led to Machar’s house arrest, stems from intensified violence in the Upper Nile region between government forces and the White Army allied with Machar, bringing armed clashes closer to Juba.
The Upper Nile conflict has resulted in civilian casualties
and displacement, raising fears over the collapse of the 2018 peace agreement
that ended the five-year civil war between President Kiir and Dr. Machar.
Without de-escalation and dialogue, there are growing concerns that South Sudan could slip back into full-scale civil war.
The government has not issued any statement on the detention of Dr. Machar.
Civil society and women's groups, regional bodies like IGAD
and the African Union, along with Western allies including the U.S., have
called for restraint, dialogue, the release of Machar from detention, and the
upholding of the 2018 peace agreement.
The African Union Commission announced it is sending its
conflict resolution body in an effort to maintain peace in the world’s youngest
nation.
“The chairperson will deploy the AU Panel of the Wise to
Juba as part of efforts to de-escalate the situation,” a statement from the AU
reads.
The South Sudan Revitalized Transitional Government of National Unity (R-TGoNU), which appoints Dr. Machar as First Vice President, derives its
legitimacy from the fragile 2018 peace agreement that ended the five-year civil
war. Attempts to remove Machar from the system threaten the collapse of the
deal and undermine the government’s legitimacy.
South Sudan, the world’s youngest nation, plunged into
conflict in 2013, just two years after gaining independence from Sudan on July
9, 2011.
Fragmented rebellions, along with ethnic and communal
violence, have since plagued the country, hindering peace efforts and stalling
economic and infrastructural development.
Fourteen years after independence, the country continues to struggle with stability, with national elections now scheduled for December 2026, provided the peace agreement holds.
